A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
