Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
